Comments on: Is The Recession Over? My Gut-Check Impressions on the Future of Our Economy. http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/2009/08/is-the-recession-over-my-gut-check-impressions-on-the-future-of-our-economy/ A self-made millionaire shares her recipe for success, happiness and financial freedom Wed, 01 Sep 2010 02:32:15 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Quentin Lewis http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/2009/08/is-the-recession-over-my-gut-check-impressions-on-the-future-of-our-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-2293 Quentin Lewis Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:09:22 +0000 http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/?p=844#comment-2293 I like your commentary....and think you might just be right. I think a lot of the future change that happens in the US economy will depend on what we bring to the table in terms of our value to the world. Currently, our value is that we are consumers....we USE all the stuff THEY make....so China is happy to fund our addiction in order to bootstrap their productive capability....but don't for a minute think they will FORGET the money we owe them when they replace our consumption with internal consumption of their own. So all this will affect the value of the dollar and so the cost of goods in the USA......so I have a bit of money in foreign currencies as a hedge against dollar loss of value. I think this is a long term problem, not one for the next year....but people seem to think that if it happens, it will happen quickly! China will replace us as the largest consumer nation within 20 years....maybe sooner if they continue to grow at 8% and we are stagnant. Again....once they replace us, they have no need to lend to us...and will ask for their money back! Let's NOT let the government run all our infrastructure, because it will be that same government (that's us) that will owe the money....and that will mean not only high taxes (which are just going to happen once the bills need to be paid) but if they say run Healthcare, it will mean a major crimp on their budgets for this and other stuff. Deflation / Inflation....guessing inflation because of above....on the other hand, if we are still in the money borrowing mode, it will just KILL us because we will be paying high rates on money we borrow. But people in the USA like spending "other people's money", so I expect the votes to expand government spending to "support us" will keep going on and on.....so if you are a saver....watch your wallet....it will be picked. (heck, debtors have no money....so we savers will have to be separated from our savings!) I like your commentary….and think you might just be right.

I think a lot of the future change that happens in the US economy will depend on what we bring to the table in terms of our value to the world.

Currently, our value is that we are consumers….we USE all the stuff THEY make….so China is happy to fund our addiction in order to bootstrap their productive capability….but don’t for a minute think they will FORGET the money we owe them when they replace our consumption with internal consumption of their own.

So all this will affect the value of the dollar and so the cost of goods in the USA……so I have a bit of money in foreign currencies as a hedge against dollar loss of value. I think this is a long term problem, not one for the next year….but people seem to think that if it happens, it will happen quickly!

China will replace us as the largest consumer nation within 20 years….maybe sooner if they continue to grow at 8% and we are stagnant. Again….once they replace us, they have no need to lend to us…and will ask for their money back!

Let’s NOT let the government run all our infrastructure, because it will be that same government (that’s us) that will owe the money….and that will mean not only high taxes (which are just going to happen once the bills need to be paid) but if they say run Healthcare, it will mean a major crimp on their budgets for this and other stuff.

Deflation / Inflation….guessing inflation because of above….on the other hand, if we are still in the money borrowing mode, it will just KILL us because we will be paying high rates on money we borrow.

But people in the USA like spending “other people’s money”, so I expect the votes to expand government spending to “support us” will keep going on and on…..so if you are a saver….watch your wallet….it will be picked. (heck, debtors have no money….so we savers will have to be separated from our savings!)

]]> By: Little House http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/2009/08/is-the-recession-over-my-gut-check-impressions-on-the-future-of-our-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-2236 Little House Wed, 19 Aug 2009 23:52:42 +0000 http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/?p=844#comment-2236 I agree with your outlook on our future economy. I do think it will be a while before we see any real improvements in the stock market or employment or the economy as a whole. I think that some people will begin to live within their means and stick with it. However, I'm not 100% convinced that when the goods times roll again, that those who had to tighten their belts, will continue on that path. The media and advertisers would need to begin promoting self-sustainability, and I don't see that yet. So many people are highly influenced through television and until commercials begin reducing the idea of consumption, I don't see this being a long-term trend. Hopefully I'm dead wrong on this last comment. :) I agree with your outlook on our future economy. I do think it will be a while before we see any real improvements in the stock market or employment or the economy as a whole. I think that some people will begin to live within their means and stick with it.

However, I’m not 100% convinced that when the goods times roll again, that those who had to tighten their belts, will continue on that path. The media and advertisers would need to begin promoting self-sustainability, and I don’t see that yet. So many people are highly influenced through television and until commercials begin reducing the idea of consumption, I don’t see this being a long-term trend. Hopefully I’m dead wrong on this last comment. :)

]]> By: ElizabethG http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/2009/08/is-the-recession-over-my-gut-check-impressions-on-the-future-of-our-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-2214 ElizabethG Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:04:07 +0000 http://millionairemommynextdoor.com/?p=844#comment-2214 Interesting post. Here are my 2 cents (now worth about 1.993) I think there are two fundamental trends going on, one cyclical and the other secular. From a cyclical standpoint, things seem to have improved, the ultimate panic and potential real banking crisis and credit dead-lock seems to have abated. This will continue to be volatile and the stock market tends to lead, rather than lag, cyclical moves. The second trend is secular where the US economy is shifting from manufacturing toward something else, and the painful transition in the labor markets continues. For the median worker, I do not see real wages going up in this long-term secular decline. I hope you are right that things remake themselves into a much more sustainable economy, but frankly I think we will need more of a sense of crisis. Interesting post. Here are my 2 cents (now worth about 1.993) I think there are two fundamental trends going on, one cyclical and the other secular. From a cyclical standpoint, things seem to have improved, the ultimate panic and potential real banking crisis and credit dead-lock seems to have abated. This will continue to be volatile and the stock market tends to lead, rather than lag, cyclical moves.

The second trend is secular where the US economy is shifting from manufacturing toward something else, and the painful transition in the labor markets continues. For the median worker, I do not see real wages going up in this long-term secular decline. I hope you are right that things remake themselves into a much more sustainable economy, but frankly I think we will need more of a sense of crisis.

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